Showing posts with label index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label index. Show all posts

Monday, 23 August 2010

What is ‘money’?

What is ‘money’?
Money is anything that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts.  The main uses of money are as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and store of value.

Evolution of Money: ‘Double Coincidence of Wants’
There was a time when money did not exist.  If ‘A’ wanted to buy something but ‘B’ did not have it, but ‘C’ wanted ‘A’’s goods while ‘B’ needed ‘C’’s produce (and so on) then through a complicated series of exchanges over time, everyone could get what they wanted.  However, this was dependent on too many factors and took a lot of time.

This sort of problem is prevalent in any society that relies on barter, and is referred to as the problem of a “double coincidence of wants” – situation where 2 people each happen to want what the other person has.  ‘A’ solved the issue by indirect exchange – he had to trade with a 3rd party for an item he did not want, and then trade that item for the product he did want.

This process of indirect exchange can be very inconvenient.  In the course of his day-to-day bartering, ‘A’ may find one day that people tend to prefer ‘honey’ in trade to other items. He begins trading his own goods and services for honey.   ‘A’ does this, not because he likes honey, but because he knows that honey can be more readily traded for what he does want, than what he could obtain by directly bartering with his own goods and services.

This sets up a positive feedback loop. Increased use of honey in barter, causes ‘A’ and others to begin trading their goods and services for honey, not because they like honey, but because they know that the honey can be readily traded for what they do want.

This causes even more people still to being trading and bartering for honey, until finally ‘A’s whole community is bartering and trading, not for what they do want, but for honey.  They then take the honey and trade for what they do want.
This problem overall is caused by the improbability of the wants, needs or events that cause or motivate a transaction occurring at the same time and the same place.

In-kind transactions have several problems, most notably timing constraints.  If you wish to trade fruit for what, you an only do this when the fruit and wheat are both available at the same time and place (and only if someone wishes to trade wheat for fruit).  That may be a very brief time, or never.  With money, you can sell your fruit when it is ripe and take the money. You can then use the money to buy wheat when the wheat harvest comes in.  Thus the use of money makes all commodities more liquid.

Because of the severe cost imposed by the coincidence of wants in an in-kind economy, money tends to emerge naturally as some form of commodity money.

Earlier times, anything ranging from rice to cotton to food products like honey could serve as a medium of exchange.



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From Gold To Paper

Evolution of Money: From Gold To Paper

In the recent past, gold and silver coins were used as a medium of exchange because they were more durable and universally accepted as a medium of exchange.  But they also had posed their own set of difficulties.  For instances one could never be sure of the purity and the quality of the metal being offered in exchange.

This led to the use of metal coins of gold and silver being issued by the king.  All coins carrying the seal of the king carried assurance of quality and weight were universally accepted as a medium of exchange.

But with the development of the printing press, this form of currencies evolved into paper currencies convertible into a previously fixed amount of gold at any time on demand. This worked well for both the people and the king.  People were happy because carrying paper currency was more convenient and the king was happy because it did away with the trouble of minting fresh coins to meet rising demand.

In case of gold coins, gold supply could be increased either by procuring more gold or by lowering the quantity of gold in existing coins and by using the extra gold for minting more coins.

Gold/Silver coins etc were a natural precursor to the use of paper currency, as the value printed on it would be easily convertible to the underlying precious metal.

The second practice of lowering the quantity of gold for minting more coins is called “debasement” and one can simply print more paper currency by reducing the pre fixed amount of gold repayable against each currency.  This led to era of convertible currencies, where you can convert your paper currency at any time with a previously fixed amount of another commodity such as gold.

But as you keep on reducing the pre-fixed amount of gold payable against paper currency, you reach a point when the actual gold repayable is almost negligible.  They you may wonder why you should bother about keeping a paper currency that can be physically converted into gold.  But people wanted to use paper currency only as a medium of exchange for other goods and services and would not have minded losing gold if they were given an assurance that paper currency would not lose its status as a medium of exchange.

It was then decided to make paper currency compulsory for all to accept the paper currency as a medium of exchange.  Paper currency became a legal tender, which means that you had the right to offer the paper currency as a settlement of your debts and others are bound to accept the same.  This is what led to the birth of “fiat currency”.

Gold/Silver coins etc were a naturally precursor to the use of paper currency, as the value printed on it would be easily convertible to the underlying precious metal.

Fiat currencies are worth the paper securities backing them.  To print “fiat currency” it is not compulsory to have the backing of gold, it can be printed simply on the backing of government securities.  So the paper currency you hold loses physical convertibility with gold, however it retains financial convertibility with government securities backing it.  So you can convert you money into government securities and vice versa.  But many also criticize the era of fiat currency for the unbridled increase in money supply.

Recap: Why move from Barter to ‘Money’
The process of evolution of a commodity into a money is general and universal.  It occurs anytime a large group of people, trade goods and services under the barter.  This process can be broken down into simpler parts:

‘Selection pressure’, the force driving the natural selection process, is the problem of a double coincidence of wants.

‘Selectors’ are the intelligent decision makers trading goods and services via a process of indirect exchange.

The selectors, guided only by experience from past transactions, will select from among competing methods of payment, those commodities that can be most easily traded for other commodities and services.

An understanding of the fundamental concepts of money i.e. medium of exchange, measure of value, and store of value etc is not required at at for this process of selection to occur.  The selectors are driven only by their desire to make life easier on themselves more than anything else.

Increased selection of one commodity as a method of payment will only increases its “Preferability” as a method of payment in the eyes of the selectors.  This causes a positive feedback loop to occur, causing even more selectors to select this commodity as a method of payment.

The end result of this process is that over time, an entire population of people are now buying and selling their goods and services in exchange for that single commodity only.  By definition, this commodity is money, whether the selectors are aware of it or not.  When a commodity is used as money, the money is called “commodity money”.  Among primitive tribes, everything from shells, to cattle, to cocoa beans have been used as commodity money.  Gold and silver were used as commodity money right up to the beginning of the 20th century.

Price Shocks?
Fiscal measure?
Declining output?
Excess money supply?
Monetary tightening?



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How is an Index Constructed?

-Three basic ingredients have to be judged:
1.    Base year for measurement
2.    Number of companies to be included
3.    Base value (For eg: 10/100/1000)

-For BSE Sensex:
-    Base year: 1978-79
-    Number of companies: 30
-    Base value: 100
-    Date of launch: January 1, 1986 (baseline to 1978-79)
-    Index calculated every 15 seconds

No written rule which specifies number of companies to be included or base value to be consider (Sensex considered 100 as it was neither too large nor too small a value)


On what basis are companies chosen to be part of an Index?
-    Composition of the companies in an index can keep changing periodically
-    Some factors on which the decision to include a company depends on:
o    Size of free float market capitalization
o    Frequency of trading
o    Listed history and track record
o    Industry representation
-    When the BSE Sensex was originally formed, it used the weigh of market capitalization of companies, but from September 2003 onwards, it shifted to the free-float market capitalization method.


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What is Free-Float Market Capitalization?

-    Free-float is defined as the total number of shares, which are actually available for day-to-day trading (hence this excludes shares locked with promoters, institutional investors, government etc)
-    Multiplying the number of free-float shares of a company with the current market price gives us the value of free-float market capitalization (FFMC)
-    How is this used?
o    Suppose in base year, FFMC of A: Rs.100,forB:  Rs.200 and so on, adding up to overall FFMC for all 30 companies in the index: Rs.1000
o    Base value of the index: Rs.100
o    Establish a proportional relationship between base value and FFMC (termed as index divisor) by equating the overall FFMC (Rs.1000) to value of the base (100 points)
o    Hence, each Rs.10 of FFMC is worth 1 point in terms of base value of the index
o    In other words, if market cap rises by Rs.100, index should rise by 10 points

Free-float market capitalization defines how much money will be required if one were to buy all the shares of a company that are available for trading


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Advantages of Free-float Methodology

-    Reflects the market trends more rationally; takes into consideration only those shares that are available for trading in the market
-    Makes the index more broad-based by reducing concentration to top few companies in index
-    Aids both active and passive investing styles
o    Aids active managers by enabling them to benchmark fund returns vis-à-vis an investible index, enabling an apple-to-apple comparison thereby by facilitating better evaluation of performance of active managers
o    Being a perfectly replicable portfolio of stocks, a Free-float adjusted index is best suited for the passive managers as it enables them t track the index with the least tracking error.
-    Improves index flexibility in terms of including any stock from the universe of listed stocks, improving market coverage and sector coverage of the index.
o    For eg, under a Full-market cap methodology, companies with large market cap and low free-float can’t generally be included in the Index because they tend to distort the index by having an undue influence on the index movement.
o    However, under the Free-float Methodology, since only the free-float market cap of each company is considered for index calculation, it becomes possible to include such closely-held companies in the index while at the same time preventing their undue influence on the index movement.
-    Globally, the Free-float Methodology of index construction is considered to be an industry best practice and all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, S&P and STOXX have adopted the same
o    MSCI, a leading global index provider, shifted all its indices to the this methodology in 2002
o    The MSCI India Standard Index, which is followed by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) to track Indian equities, is also based on the Free-float Methodology
o    NASDAQ-100, the underlying index to the famous Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – QQQ is based on the Free-float Methodology


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